895
FXUS66 KSGX 031032
AFDSGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Diego CA
232 AM PST Tue Nov 3 2026

.SYNOPSIS...
Fair and cool weather will continue through Thursday. Except
there is a slight chance of showers mainly in southwest San Diego
County tonight. High pressure aloft and offshore flow will bring
gradually warmer and dry weather Thursday into the weekend. For
this weekend, temperatures will climb well above normal,
especially near the coast, and offshore breezes and locally
stronger Santa Ana winds are likely for foothills and some inland
valleys.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

It`s a mostly clear and tranquil morning, with a few high clouds
floating by and a few low clouds off the coast. A low pressure
trough zipping west to east through northern CA will bring more
high clouds today and more low clouds tonight into Wednesday. In
fact, the low clouds could generate a few light showers in
southwest San Diego County this evening through about sunrise
Wednesday. This trough will also enhance onshore winds in the
coastal waters, the mountains, and the deserts mainly this
evening. Isolated strongest gusts should reach around 35-40 mph in
the mountains and deserts. The trough exits to the east but it is
followed by only timid high pressure and some very weak offshore
flow. A high pressure ridge over the West Coast amplifies on
Friday and Saturday. This will boost temperatures by virtue of the
higher pressure, but also from stronger offshore flow, which will
favor the warming closer to the coast. That offshore flow will
produce some winds, maybe some legit Santa Ana winds, in foothills
and some adjacent valleys. Offshore winds right now look most
likely and strongest on Saturday and Sunday mornings, when top
gusts could reach 40 mph. This is a rough estimate for now, and
the wind picture will become clearer in coming days. High
temperatures Saturday and Sunday near the coast and in western
valleys will soar well into the 80s, about 5-15 degrees above
normal. That will produce a moderate HeatRisk in those areas.
However, the air will be dry, allowing for efficient cooling
during the long nights, especially where winds calm. All this will
mitigate the heat risks. The ridge aloft and the offshore flow
begin to weaken by Monday as a strong jet drives a longwave trough
eastward across the Pacific.

&&

.AVIATION...
031030...Widespread VFR conditions expected through late this
afternoon, with SCT to BKN clouds AOA 20kft at times through late
Tue. SCT-BKN clouds around 3000 to 5000 ft MSL move into San Diego
Co and south Orange/Riverside counties after 00Z Wed. Likely (60+%
chance) these will be above 3000 ft for the most part, but dips to
2500-3000 ft MSL are possible, especially in southern SD County.
Areas of -DZ/-RA are likely for coastal San Diego Co after 06Z Wed,
most likely in south county, but aren`t expected to lead to any
decrease in vis. Clouds start to scatter out around 15Z Wed.

&&

.MARINE...
Weak winds expected tonight through this morning, before onshore
winds strengthen into this afternoon and evening, with gusts in the
outer coastal waters 20 to 25 knots through early Wednesday morning.
Winds will lead to rough, choppy seas. A Small Craft Advisory for
this hazard is in effect this afternoon through early morning
Wednesday.

&&

.BEACHES...
Tides will increase at the end of the week, reaching 7 ft as early
as Thursday in Orange County and Friday in San Diego County. Tides
will peak over the weekend into early next week at 7.5-7.7 ft. Minor
coastal flooding is possible. We`re monitoring the potential for an
incoming west swell of 3 ft from 290 with a 14-16 second period. If
this swell materializes, max surf of 6 to 7 feet are possible, which
would increase the flood potential on west facing beaches.

Reminder, tides mentioned have been corrected to reflect the current
trends in actual tide observations.

&&

.SKYWARN...
Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are
encouraged to report significant weather conditions.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 4 AM PST
     Wednesday for Waters from San Mateo Point to the Mexican
     Border Extending 10 to 60 nm out including San Clemente
     Island.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MM
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...CSP

NWS San Diego (SGX) Office