180
FXUS65 KPSR 031121
AFDPSR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
421 AM MST Tue Nov 3 2026

.UPDATE...Updated Aviation Discussion.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Flooding of several area streams and rivers continues to
  subside, while major waterways like the Salt River and Gila
  River will likely continue to experience flooding through the
  week due to dam releases.

- Dry weather with seasonable temperatures will continue the next
  several days with lower desert highs warming into upper 70s to
  middle 80s by the end of the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

A considerable volume of water continues to flow downhill through
many of the major waterways in south-central AZ early this
morning, especially in the Salt and Verde systems. Salt River
Project releases from the Bartlett Dam into the Verde River and
Granite Reef Dam into the Salt River, remain very high, over 30000
cfs and over 55000 cfs respectively. Streamflow gauges were also
reading between 30000-60000 cfs downstream from Tempe Town Lake
heading into the Gila River. The last time there were major
releases this high was in the Spring of 2023 and the Granite Reef
Dam releases peaked at just under 40000 cfs and the runoff lasted
for 2-3 months before fully emptying into the Colorado River near
Yuma. That event in 2023 involved snow melt. So, there was a more
prolonged runoff, but this event has a larger volume of water.
Water levels and flow of this magnitude will continue to impact
several low water crossings and any settlements, structures, and
camps immediately near the banks. Very strong currents will also
be very dangerous and deadly. There have been multiple fatalities
by people recreating in the Salt and Verde with past events. So,
it is strongly encouraged to avoid entering the water and please
obey any closures. Also, be prepared for significant flood water
continuing through the Gila River to Painted Rock Dam in Maricopa
County. From there it may take a few days before water is released
from Painted Rock into the lower Gila in Yuma County.

With clear skies and very light winds this morning, and with the
lingering saturated grounds, there is potential for some patchy
fog to develop this morning. Many areas are just too dry for
development, but following cross-over temperature analysis, the
best shot at fog development looks to be in parts of Pinal
County, along the Gila River in Maricopa and Yuma Counties, and
parts of eastern La Paz County.

Besides the flooding and potential fog, weather will remain dry
and pleasant through the middle of the week. Water vapor satellite
this morning shows shortwave ridging moving over the area ahead of
a deep Pacific low just off the NorCal coast. Model guidance
remains in excellent agreement showing this Pacific low tracking
through NV, UT, and CO today through tomorrow, staying far enough
north to have minimal impact on the local weather, besides
suppressing heights again following the shortwave ridge.
Comfortable afternoon temperatures are expected each day, with
highs in the 70s to near 80, and mornings will start out
seasonally cool, mostly in the low to mid 50s across the lower
deserts to mid to upper 40s in the typically cooler spots.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

The long term forecast remains dry and seasonal. Ensemble guidance
continues to show a dry positively-tilted trough dropping through
the area at the end of the week, ahead of a strong ridge spreading
into much of the west. Guidance also shows a cutoff low forming
south of the ridge over the eastern Pacific, west of the Baja
Peninsula. From here the models diverge a bit. A majority of the
GEFS members bring the cutoff low up into the Desert Southwest,
drawing some moisture up with it. However, the rest of the global
ensemble guidance leans toward a much weaker cutoff low, with the
Desert Southwest remaining dominated by ridging. Latest NBM PoPs
through the long term forecast remain under 5% across the local
area. Temperatures late-week through this weekend should warm a
few degrees, back to around normal as the ridge builds over the
West. Lower desert highs are forecast to be in the upper 70s to
lower 80s. Breezy northerly winds are likely to develop heading
into the end of this week and weekend as surface high pressure
builds over the Great Basin and Rockies, below the upper level
ridge, but wind magnitudes do not look to reach advisory level.

&&

.AVIATION...Updated at 1120Z.

South Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT; and
Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:

No major weather issues will exist through Wednesday morning
under a few passing high cirrus decks. Confidence is excellent
that light east winds will prevail across the Phoenix area through
mid afternoon before attempting to become W/NW by sunset.
However, directions may only become variable, albeit with speeds
remaining below 8kt before reverting back to an east component
mid/late evening. Across SE California, light W/NW winds will be
preferred during the evening and overnight with prolonged periods
of light and variable winds during daylight hours.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Dry seasonal conditions can be expected through the next 7 days,
with lingering flooding in major waterways like the Salt and Gila
Rivers. Saturated grounds will help keep surface humidity levels
somewhat elevated. Afternoon minimum RHs today will be around
40-55% across AZ and 20-30% across southeast CA. Despite gradual
drying through the week, the minimum RHs will only fall to around
30-40% across AZ and 17-25% across southeast CA by the end of the
week. Overnight recoveries will remain good through the week,
with around 60-80% max RHs most nights. Winds through the next 7
days will mostly follow typical diurnal trends with light speeds
and modest afternoon upslope gusts. Breezier north to northeast
winds are anticipated late week into this weekend with gusts up
to 20-30 mph forecast at this time.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Benedict
LONG TERM...Benedict
AVIATION...18
FIRE WEATHER...Benedict

NWS Phoenix (PSR) Office