899
FXUS65 KVEF 201715
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
1015 AM PDT Sat Jun 20 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Near-normal temperatures and elevated fire danger expected across
  the region today before winds subside and temperatures rise
  through the work week.

* Slight chances of isolated showers and thunderstorms mid-to-late
  week as monsoonal moisture surges northward.

&&


.DISCUSSION...Today through Friday.

A weak trough that brought windy conditions to the region on Friday
will continue to meander inland today, returning south-southwesterly
wind gusts to the region. Wind gusts will generally range between 20
and 30 mph, which drops below Red Flag Warning criteria. However,
due to ongoing dry conditions, dry fuels, and breezy winds, fire
danger will be elevated this afternoon, so recreation involving
sparks or flames is discouraged. Otherwise, this afternoon will be
the coolest of the forecast period, with highs near-normal. An area
of high pressure over northern Mexico / the Four Corners will
continue to build through the work week, allowing temperatures to
gradually climb to near-10 degrees above-normal by midweek along
with widespread Moderate Heat Risk (Level 2 of 4).

Ensemble means continue to show the high pressure system over
northern Mexico gradually building northward. Mid-to-late week, the
center of the high will shift slightly eastward, allowing monsoonal
moisture to surge northward up the Colorado River Valley into the
Mojave Desert. ECMWF ensemble PWATs show between 0.75 and 1.00
inches surging into northwestern Arizona, southeastern California,
and southern Nevada Wednesday and Thursday. There remains some
uncertainty regarding the exact timing and location of the center of
the aforementioned high pressure system midweek. Minor shifts could
result in increased or decreased chances of precipitation across the
forecast area. At present, portions of the Mojave Desert have slight
(10 to 20 percent) chances of isolated showers and thunderstorms on
Wednesday and Thursday. If you have outdoor or travel plans this
week, be sure to stay tuned to the forecast.
&&


.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 18Z Forecast
Package...South winds are expected through the afternoon, gusting 15-
20KT. Gusts over 20KT are possible (50% chance) between 22Z to 01Z
as winds shift to around 220 degrees (true). Gusts will end around
sunset. Elevated south winds at 8-10KT are expected through much of
the night before becoming light early Sunday morning. Winds on
Sunday will be lighter than they have been the past few days with no
gusts expected. East to southeast winds around 8KT are expected on
Sunday. VFR skies. Smoke from nearby wildfires should not reduce
visibility or CIGs directly at the terminals through the period,
though wildfire smoke may impact slantwise visibility at times.
Temperatures will exceed 100 degrees between 21Z-01Z today, then
again after 21Z on Sunday.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...For the 18Z Forecast Package...West winds at 10-15KT
are expected at KDAG with gusts over 25KT late this afternoon
through the evening. Elsewhere, breezy south to southwest winds are
expected with widespread 15-25KT gusts expected. Winds will diminish
after sunset with gusts ending for most locations by 03Z. Typical
light wind patterns overnight and Sunday morning. VFR conditions
persist through the period. Smoke from wildfires will advect
northeast this afternoon in eastern Nevada into Utah, then dissipate
as winds diminish tonight.
&&


.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Soulat
AVIATION...Nickerson

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NWS Las Vegas (VEF) Office