565
FXUS66 KLOX 212048
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
148 PM PDT Sat Mar 21 2026

.SYNOPSIS...21/844 AM.

Despite noticeable cooling today temperatures will remain well
above normal. Areas of dense coastal fog are possible this the
weekend as well. Temperatures will trend upward again next week
but are not expected to be as hot as this week.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-TUE)...21/148 PM.

Temperatures dropped 5-10 degrees in most areas today as high
pressure aloft weakened which allowed onshore flow to push in
earlier and stronger than previous days. The onshore push also
brought with it very dense coastal fog with visibilities a quarter
mile or less right at the beaches.

The forecast remains largely unchanged from the last few days.
Similar conditions expected Sunday with fog at the beaches and
temps in the 80s inland with an isolated 90 in the warmest areas.

Another warming trend will begin Monday and peak Tue/Wed.
Deterministic models have backed off the strength of the
north/south gradients next week by around 50% which in theory
should result in lighter winds and less downslope warming effects.
However, ensemble forecast gradients were not available and it`s
possible the majority of those are still favoring a stronger
northerly flow off the mountains. So there remains some
uncertainty there. Also, NBM appears to be on board with northeast
flow off the Santa Lucias early next week which would at least
push highs there into the 80s to lower 90s along the Central Coast
starting on Monday. Will have to give strong consideration to
heat advisories there and can`t yet rule that out for areas south
of Pt Conception as well.

.LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...21/144 PM.

Tuesday through Thursday will be very warm days, but will not be
record breaking like last week`s. The upper high will not be
overhead and hgts will be a few dam lower. Additionally while
there will be offshore flow from the north there will be onshore
flow to the east. Highs will continue in the 80s and 90s or 15 to
20 degrees above normal. There may be a need for heat advisories
in the vlys but no warnings are anticipated.

The ridge weakens some on Friday and the onshore push to the east
increases. This will likely bring 3 to 5 degrees of cooling to the
csts and 1 to 3 degrees in the vlys.

There is growing confidence that the rest of the month will be
dry. The AI-mdls still show some chc of light rain at the
beginningof April.

&&

.AVIATION...21/1608Z.

At 1600Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 800 feet deep. The top of
the inversion was 2300 feet with a temperature of 24 degrees
Celsius.

For 18Z TAF package, high confidence in KPRB, KSBP, KSMX, KBUR,
KVNY, KPMD and KWJF.

For KSBA, KOXR, KCMA, KSMO, KLAX and KLGB, moderate confidence in
18Z TAFs. Lower confidence due to uncertainties in timing of
CIG/VSBY restrictions tonight (could be +/- 3 hours of current
forecasts) and flight category (could range from IFR to VLIFR).

KLAX...Overall, moderate confidence in 18Z TAF. Timing of flight
changes this evening/overnight could be +/- 3 hours of current
forecasts. Also, there is a 30% chance of VLIFR conditions
07Z-14Z. No significant easterly wind component is expected.

KBUR...High confidence in 18Z TAF as VFR conditions are expected
through the period.

&&

.MARINE...21/1155 AM.

For the Outer Waters, moderate to high confidence in current
forecast. Today through Thursday, high confidence in a combination
of Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level winds and seas. For tonight,
there is a 60% chance of GALE FORCE WINDS across PZZ670.
Additionally on Wednesday, there is a 30-40% chance of GALE FORCE
WINDS across all of the Outer Waters.

For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, moderate to high
confidence in current forecast. Through this evening, there is a
30-40% chance of SCA level winds. For Sunday through Thursday,
there is a 60-70% chance of SCA level winds during the afternoon
and evening hours.

For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate to high
confidence in current forecast. For most of the southern Inner
Waters, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA
levels through Thursday. The only exception will be the western
half of the Santa Barbara Channel where there is a 20-30% chance
of SCA level winds today through Thursday, mainly in the late
afternoon and evening hours.

Areas of dense fog will impact the coastal waters through Sunday,
mainly from Point Conception southward. Visibilities of one
nautical mile or less can be expected.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect from 6 PM this evening to 3 AM
      PDT Sunday for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 6 PM PDT this evening
      for zone 670. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Gale Warning in effect from 6 PM this evening to 5 AM PDT
      Sunday for zone 670. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Monday for zone
      673. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect from 6 PM this evening to 3 AM
      PDT Monday for zone 676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW/Rorke
AVIATION...RAT
MARINE...RAT
SYNOPSIS...MW

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox

NWS Los Angeles (LOX) Office