163
FXUS66 KLOX 032338
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
338 PM PST Tue Feb 3 2026

Updated Aviation Section

.SYNOPSIS...03/115 PM.

Warmer temperatures with locally gusty Santa Ana winds continue
through Thursday. The winds and temperatures will peak Wednesday.
Cooler temperatures are expected Friday and over the weekend but
highs will still be at least 4-8 degrees above normal. There will
be a chance of rain by next Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-FRI)...03/146 PM.

Offshore flow is starting to take over again with widespread 80s
in the valleys and near the coast/valley interface, though
temperatures are still in the 60s near the beaches with patchy
dense fog over the Santa Monica Bay. Wednesday is still expected
to be the peak of this mini heat wave though it will only be
slightly cooler on Thursday as gradients start to trend onshore.
Hi res models are still indicating increasing Santa Ana winds
tonight into Wednesday as offshore flow increases to around 6.5mb.
At least low end advisory level winds are expected Wednesday
morning into early afternoon across the usual favored areas
including the LA Mountains and through the Hwy 14/126/118
corridors all the way to the Ventura County beaches and several
miles offshore. Temperatures are expected to easily reach the 80s
in most coast/valley areas and as high as the mid to high 80s
which would 15-22 degrees above normal and near record breaking.

Another very warm day expected Thursday, but with weakening
offshore gradients temperatures should be 2-4 degrees cooler in
most areas. The exception being the far interior areas on the
inland side of the coastal mountains where temperatures will warm
slightly.

Additional cooling of 3-6 degrees is expected Friday as ridging
shifts east and is replaced by a weak upper low. Overall, highs
will be still be 3-6 degrees above normal.

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...03/210 PM.

Ensemble solutions continue to favor dry conditions this weekend
into at least Monday as a positively tilted ridge replaces the
weak trough over California. Gradients are expected to trend
slightly offshore Saturday and Sunday and this combined with the
ridging over the state should lead to at least a few degrees of
warming in most areas, though highs generally topping out in the
70s.

However, this feature too will rather quickly be replaced by a
stronger upper level trough and low pressure system finally
nudging out the month-long ridge along the West coast. This will
bring a return to much cooler temperatures, mostly low to mid 60s
that should continue through the week. Rain chances start as
early as Monday night along the Central Coast as the first of a
couple frontal systems come through California next week. However,
rain chances are higher later Tuesday into Wednesday as a
stronger upper low approaches. Ensembles are still just indicating
light amounts of rain through the end of next week, mostly under a
a half inch.

&&

.AVIATION...03/2337Z.

At 2257Z at KLAX, there was a 200 ft marine layer. The inversion
top was 1100 ft and a temp of 25 degrees C.

High confidence in VFR TAFs with just a 10 percent chance of LIFR
conds or lower for KLAX KLGB and KSMO 03Z to 10Z.

Moderate confidence in winds. Northeast winds will increase
tonight through Wednesday. There is a 20-40% chance for northeast
winds 10-20 knots to impact KSBP and KBUR late tonight through
the period. Otherwise, offshore winds will impact typical
terminals. For KCMA, winds may flip from WSW to ENE at any point
through 06Z.

KLAX...High confidence in TAF. There is a 10 percent chance of
LIFR conds or lower between 03Z and 10Z. Moderate confidence in
any east wind component remaining under 8 kt.

KBUR...High confidence in TAF. There is a 20-40% chance for east
winds 15-20 kt to surface after 12Z, highest chances after 18Z.

&&

.MARINE...03/123 PM.

Offshore northeast winds will develop each morning near Morro
Bay, generally below SCA levels. There is a 40-50% chance for
localized east wind gusts near SCA levels around the Channel
Islands Wednesday morning into early afternoon. However, less
confidence in winds Wednesday evening into Thursday afternoon as
there is a 30% chance of SCA level SE winds north of the Channel
Islands. Otherwise, another round of at least SCA level winds and
seas across the outer waters will be likely Friday into Saturday,
and SCA winds may linger into the following week.

For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate
confidence in current forecast. Tonight through Wednesday and
potentially into Thursday morning, there is a 50-60% percent
chance of east to northeast SCA level winds from Ventura south to
Santa Monica and out past Anacapa Island, as well as potentially
through the San Pedro Channel (less confidence in this area
though).Localized Gale Force wind gusts will be likely nearshore
below mountain canyons and passes, with a 30-40% chance of
extending north to Ventura and out to Anacapa Island late tonight
through Wednesday morning. Otherwise, conds will remain below
advisory levels until northwest winds potentially increase to SCA
levels across the waters early next week, especially Tuesday.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Wind Advisory in effect from 7 AM to 2 PM PST Wednesday for
      zones 88-354-355-358-369-372-374. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     High Surf Advisory in effect until 9 PM PST this evening for
      zones 340-346-354. (See LAXCFWLOX).
     Beach Hazards Statement in effect until 9 PM PST this evening
      for zones 362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX).
     Wind Advisory in effect from 4 AM to 2 PM PST Wednesday for
      zones 375-378>380. (See LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect from midnight tonight to 3 PM
      PST Wednesday for zones 650-655. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION...Lewis
MARINE...RM/Phillips/KL
SYNOPSIS...MW

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox

NWS Los Angeles (LOX) Office